Poker Variance Calculator
Your Parameters
Adjust to match your game
Tip: If you don't know your standard deviation, use the game format presets above. NLH cash is typically 60-100 bb/100, PLO is 120-160 bb/100.
Win rate: Check your poker tracker (PT4, HM3, or built-in site stats) for your actual bb/100 over your last 50K+ hands.
Session Simulation
1,000 simulated sessions plotted
Adjust parameters, then click Run Simulation
Results will appear here after simulation
Understanding the Chart
Your expected profit line. Where you'd be with no variance — pure mathematical expectation.
Sessions that ended in profit. Even winning players don't always end green — that's variance.
Sessions that ended in a loss. Even with a positive win rate, some sessions will be losers. That's normal.
Why Variance Matters in Poker
Variance is the reason winning players lose sessions. Even with a solid 5 bb/100 win rate, the standard deviation in No-Limit Hold'em (typically 80 bb/100) means your short-term results will be wildly different from your long-term expectation. Understanding this is crucial for bankroll management and mental game.
A player with a 5 bb/100 win rate and 80 bb/100 standard deviation has roughly a 36% chance of being a losing player after 10,000 hands. After 50,000 hands, that drops to about 13%. After 200,000 hands, it's around 3%. This is why professional poker players talk about "the long run" — you need a massive sample size for your true skill to shine through the noise.
Bankroll Management & Variance
Your bankroll should be large enough to withstand downswings. Here's how many buy-ins you need based on your risk tolerance:
| Risk of Ruin | NLH Cash (100bb) | PLO Cash (100bb) | MTT (avg buy-in) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% (Conservative) | 30 buy-ins | 50 buy-ins | 100 buy-ins |
| 1% (Standard) | 50 buy-ins | 80 buy-ins | 200 buy-ins |
| 0.1% (Professional) | 80 buy-ins | 120 buy-ins | 300 buy-ins |
Minimize Variance Impact with Better Rakeback
Higher rakeback reduces the effective rake you pay, which directly increases your win rate. Even a 10% rakeback improvement can cut your variance impact significantly over large samples.