Tournament Variance: Understanding Swings in MTTs

## Understanding Tournament Variance Tournament variance is significantly higher than cash game variance. In a given tournament, you will lose your entire buy-in roughly 80-85% of the time (failing to cash). Even winning tournament players regularly experience 50-100+ buy-in downswings. The mathematical reason for high tournament variance is the top-heavy payout structure. Most of your profit comes from occasional deep runs and final table finishes. The long stretches between these results create extended losing periods that test your bankroll and mental fortitude. Managing tournament variance requires: adequate bankroll (100+ buy-ins), emotional resilience during downswings, tracking your results over large samples (500+ tournaments), and focusing on decision quality rather than short-term results. ## Tournament Rakeback Reminder Tournament buy-in fees count toward your rakeback tier at most rooms. When evaluating tournaments, factor in the effective discount from your rakeback percentage. A $10+$1 tournament at 40% rakeback effectively costs $10.60 after rakeback — a meaningful savings over thousands of entries.